EU’s Top Duo at India’s Republic Day: Is the Long-Awaited FTA Finally Here?
- Joydeep Chakraborty
- Jan 16
- 4 min read
When European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen take their seats at India’s Republic Day celebrations, they will bring with them more than diplomatic protocol. They will carry the weight of a trade agreement that has waited more than a decade to be signed. The 25–27 January visit marks a rare convergence of ceremony and strategy, with the 16th India–EU Summit in New Delhi on 27 January as its centrepiece.
Presidents Costa and von der Leyen will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attend restricted and delegation-level talks, and co-chair an India–EU Business Forum aimed at boosting commercial ties. For the first time in history, EU leaders will jointly grace India’s Republic Day celebrations, which is a gesture as symbolic as it is strategic, signalling the EU’s intent to anchor its long-term engagement in Asia.
Beneath the Pageantry: Why the India–EU Moment Matters
Beneath the pageantry of Republic Day and summit diplomacy lies a deeper urgency shaped by geopolitical flux, economic fragmentation, and the search for trusted partners. Shifting global trade patterns, supply-chain disruptions, and rising protectionism have forced both India and Europe to rethink priorities.
India and the EU have been strategic partners since 2004, yet the relationship has acquired fresh momentum following the European Commission’s landmark visit to India in February 2025 and the EU’s new Strategic Agenda in October 2025. This agenda emphasizes prosperity and sustainability, technology and innovation, security and defence, connectivity, and global cooperation.
President Costa has described India as a crucial partner for Europe, noting that both sides share “the ability and responsibility to protect the rules-based international order.” The upcoming summit offers a rare opportunity to consolidate this partnership and accelerate cooperation across sectors, from clean energy to defence.
Europe’s Calculated Move: Why India Matters
For the European Union, India is no longer just a distant partner; it is central to Europe’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its pursuit of “open strategic autonomy.” Amid tensions with China and global supply-chain fragility, India’s scale, growth trajectory, and democratic stability make it indispensable.
The EU seeks deeper market access, robust investment protections, and collaboration in sectors like digital technologies, semiconductors, and critical raw materials. Politically, India is a reliable ally in defending a predictable and rules-based trading system, as protectionism and unilateralism rise globally.
That German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited India barely weeks before the EU leadership is no coincidence. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, often tests the ground before broader EU moves. His January visit, focused on economic and security cooperation, set the tone for what is now unfolding at the EU level.
A Strategic Signal for India
For India, the visit carries profound significance. It signals global recognition of India not merely as a market, but as a partner capable of shaping trade rules, technological standards, and supply chains. India’s approach to trade has matured, prioritising agreements that safeguard farmers, MSMEs, and policy space while expanding export opportunities.
Bilateral trade in goods between India and the EU reached $136.53 billion in 2024–25, making the EU India’s largest trading partner for goods. Beyond numbers, the summit underscores India’s evolving strategic role: a hub for manufacturing, technology, and clean energy, ready to integrate more deeply into global value chains.
The Long Road to a Trade Breakthrough
All roads from this summit, however, lead to one defining outcome. The India–EU Free Trade Agreement has eluded both sides for over a decade. Negotiations resumed in June 2022 after a nine-year hiatus, covering tariffs, services, regulatory barriers, and investment protections. Officials now describe talks as entering a “decisive, near-final phase,” with most frameworks agreed and only last-mile issues remaining.
When India–EU trade talks collapsed in 2013, many negotiators privately assumed the file was closed for good. For nearly nine years, the proposed FTA gathered dust as global trade politics turned inward. Yet in 2022, the same deal returned, not by idealism, but by necessity, as India and Europe confronted fractured supply chains and geopolitical shocks.
Recent meetings in Brussels, including Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit on 8–9 January 2026, focused on narrowing remaining divergences. Goyal’s diplomacy emphasised that India wants the FTA anchored at the political level, not just in technical negotiations. Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s trips to France and Luxembourg built strategic trust and political backing, creating the conditions for a breakthrough.
The FTA conversation reaching the penultimate stage is no accident; it has been carefully prepared through months of intense ministerial and diplomatic engagement on both sides. Analysts widely expect the India–EU Summit to provide a platform for a major political announcement, even if the final legal text follows shortly thereafter.
The Stakes and the Promise
If the India–EU FTA is concluded, it would be India’s largest and most consequential trade agreement with a major economic bloc. Indian exporters, from pharmaceuticals to engineering goods, textiles, and chemicals, would gain enhanced access to the European market. Investor protections would improve, and regulatory cooperation would deepen. The FTA could also accelerate India’s integration into global value chains in manufacturing, services, and technology.
More than economics, the deal signals a strategic alignment. Cooperation in clean energy, digital technologies, and defence hints at a long-term partnership beyond transactional trade, one anchored in shared global interests.
A Turning Point in Global Partnership
This January visit marks a historic inflexion point. For Europe, it is about securing a reliable partner in an uncertain world. For India, it is about leveraging global trust to accelerate economic growth and strategic autonomy. For the India–EU FTA, it represents the near realisation of a decade-long ambition.
If January 2026 delivers what both sides are signaling, the India–EU FTA will not merely conclude a negotiation, but will mark the beginning of one of the most consequential economic partnerships of the 21st century. As Costa and von der Leyen take their seats at Republic Day, New Delhi will host not just a ceremony, but the dawn of a transformative alliance poised to reshape trade, technology, and geopolitics.