From Hormuz to the Arctic: How PM Modi’s Five-Nation Tour Maps India’s Emerging Global Ambition

For decades, India was often viewed as a balancing power standing cautiously between competing blocs. Today, New Delhi is attempting something more ambitious by trying to emerge as an indispensable connector between regions, supply chains and strategic ecosystems. That ambition carries risks, expectations and enormous complexity, but also reflects growing confidence.

The visit will begin from the oil terminals of the Gulf and end in the innovation hubs of Northern Europe. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming five-nation tour traces the very geography of 21st-century power.

Between May 15 and 20, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the United Arab Emirates, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy. The itinerary reflects a more nuanced and strategic execution of India’s foreign policy. Energy security, semiconductor technology, maritime trade, green transition, defence partnerships and geopolitical balancing are now being woven into one coherent strategic vision.

The timing of the visit is significant, coming at a moment when West Asia remains tense and Europe is restructuring its industrial priorities. Global supply chains are in flux. Technology has become a new geopolitical currency. Nations today are searching for trusted partners rather than merely large markets, and India is positioning itself at the centre of this changing global order.

The tour almost unfolds like a modern Silk Route, carrying not spices and textiles, but data, energy, technology and strategic ambition. What makes this visit particularly important is the widening scope of Indian diplomacy. New Delhi is no longer engaging countries through isolated bilateral conversations, but is attempting to connect diverse regions with different priorities. The Gulf, Europe and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly being viewed through one strategic lens.

The Gulf Leg Is About Energy, Stability and Indian Lives

The first stop in the UAE is perhaps the most urgent. India imports nearly 65% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, while a substantial share of LNG supplies also passes through the same narrow maritime corridor. Any escalation involving Iran or instability in the Gulf therefore directly affects Indian households, industries and inflation.

For millions of Indians, oil prices shape transport costs, electricity bills and food prices. That is why Indian policymakers increasingly see Gulf stability as deeply tied to the country’s own economic steadiness.

Recent tensions in West Asia, including attacks around strategic maritime infrastructure, have once again exposed how fragile global energy routes can become. In 2021, when the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for just six days, nearly 12% of global trade was disrupted.

That memory continues to influence strategic thinking across capitals, strengthening support for alternative connectivity frameworks such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is therefore expected to focus heavily on energy security and maritime logistics. Discussions are likely to extend to strategic petroleum reserves, supply continuity and evacuation preparedness in case regional tensions intensify further.

The human dimension is equally important. More than 4.5 million Indians live and work in the UAE. For families spread across Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Telangana, the Gulf is an economic lifeline. For millions of Indians working in the Gulf, for startups seeking technology partnerships, and for industries searching for energy security, this tour carries consequences far beyond summit halls.

The India-UAE relationship itself has transformed dramatically over the last decade. The UAE is now India’s third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade crossing USD 85 billion after the India-UAE CEPA agreement came into force. What once revolved largely around oil has expanded into fintech, logistics, infrastructure, renewable energy and defence cooperation.

If the UAE leg is about securing the present, the European leg is about preparing for the future.

Why the Netherlands Matters in the Global Chip Race

The second phase of the tour shifts from oil to silicon. India’s visit to the Netherlands carries unparalleled significance because the country occupies a strategic position in the global semiconductor ecosystem. The Dutch company ASML has emerged as one of the most important technology firms in the world. Its monopoly over extreme ultraviolet lithography machines effectively determines who can manufacture the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips.

The importance of ASML became globally visible when even China, despite enormous investments, struggled to access cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing capabilities because of export restrictions tied to these technologies. That episode changed how governments view semiconductors when they accepted that chips are no longer just industrial products, but instruments of national power.

The global semiconductor market is expected to exceed USD 1 trillion by 2030, signalling intense competition over trusted supply chains and advanced chip technologies. India understands that its ambitions in electronics manufacturing, artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure cannot advance without deeper integration into global semiconductor ecosystems.

Modi’s engagement with Dutch leadership is therefore expected to focus on semiconductor collaboration, resilient supply chains, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing partnerships.

The India-Netherlands partnership already extends beyond technology. Cooperation in water management, port logistics, green hydrogen and cyber security has steadily expanded. Bilateral trade touched nearly USD 27.8 billion in 2024-25, while Dutch investments in India have crossed USD 55 billion. It is safe to say that the Netherlands is quietly emerging as one of India’s most important gateways into continental Europe.

The Nordic Countries Offer India a New Dimension of Power

India’s outreach to Sweden and Norway reflects another important shift. The Raisina Hill is broadening its European engagement beyond traditional powers such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

The Nordic countries, while small in population, punch far above their weight in innovation, sustainability and industrial competitiveness. Collectively, they rank among the world’s leaders in green technologies, digital governance and climate innovation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sweden comes at a time when Europe’s green transition is reshaping industrial priorities, with growing demand for green hydrogen partnerships, battery technologies, clean manufacturing systems and critical minerals cooperation. This presents India with an opportunity to become an active part of that transition as both a manufacturing and technology partner.

Sweden also matters strategically because of its defence-industrial capabilities. Companies like Saab possess expertise in aerospace and defence technologies that align closely with India’s push for defence indigenisation and co-production. The agenda during the Sweden leg is expected to include artificial intelligence, startups, climate technologies, telecom and advanced manufacturing.

A key moment of the visit will be Modi’s participation alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the European Round Table for Industry. The engagement will be significant in reinforcing Europe’s recognition of India not merely as a market, but as a strategic economic partner in an era of supply-chain diversification.

Norway, IMEC and India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy

The Norway leg may ultimately emerge as the diplomatic centrepiece of the tour. Oslo will host the third India-Nordic Summit, bringing together leaders from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland. The summit reflects the growing importance of what diplomats call “minilateralism” or smaller strategic groupings built around shared economic and technological interests.

Norway itself holds immense strategic value with its sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, having invested nearly USD 28 billion in Indian capital markets. The country is also a global leader in maritime technologies, renewable energy and Arctic research.

Climate change has steadily pushed the Arctic towards becoming a region of strategic competition and future trade opportunities. Nations are closely watching northern maritime routes that could significantly reshape global shipping patterns in the coming decades.

The summit agenda is expected to focus on renewable energy, digital public infrastructure, shipping technologies, blue economy cooperation and Arctic engagement.

The India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement, which came into effect in October 2025, adds another layer of significance. The agreement is expected to unlock long-term investments and technology flows into India from European Free Trade Association countries.

India today simultaneously participates in groupings as diverse as QUAD, BRICS, SCO and I2U2. Few countries engage rival geopolitical platforms with such flexibility. The five-nation tour reflects this evolution from traditional non-alignment toward a more pragmatic strategy of “multi-alignment”. India is engaging multiple power centres without binding itself to rigid alliance structures.

Italy and the Geography of a New Trade Corridor

Modi’s final stop in Italy ties together many of the larger themes of the tour. Under the Prime Ministership of Giorgia Meloni, India-Italy ties have acquired fresh strategic momentum. Trade between the two countries has reached nearly USD 16.77 billion, while cooperation in defence, innovation and clean energy continues to expand.

Yet Italy’s real strategic significance lies in geography. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is increasingly viewed as a geopolitical alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. IMEC is not merely a shipping corridor. It is envisioned as a vast connectivity architecture linking ports, railways, energy grids, digital cables and green hydrogen networks across regions.

Italy wants to position its ports as major gateways within this emerging corridor at a time when traditional trade routes are becoming increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical instability. Connectivity is no longer only about economics. It is now deeply tied to strategic influence.

The visible diplomatic warmth between PM Modi and his Italian counterpart Meloni reflects a broader convergence, as both countries increasingly support ideas of strategic autonomy and multipolar cooperation in a rapidly changing world.

Shaping A New Global Order

Taken together, the five-nation tour offers perhaps the clearest glimpse yet into India’s emerging grand strategy. India’s emerging grand strategy is a single, integrated framework where energy diplomacy in the Gulf, semiconductor partnerships in Europe, green transition cooperation with Nordic countries, connectivity projects through IMEC, defence manufacturing collaborations, technology alliances, and maritime security are no longer separate policy tracks but converging into one coherent geopolitical vision.

For decades, India was often viewed as a balancing power standing cautiously between competing blocs. Today, New Delhi is attempting something more ambitious by trying to emerge as an indispensable connector between regions, supply chains and strategic ecosystems. That ambition carries risks, expectations and enormous complexity, but also reflects growing confidence.

Today, the countries that can build bridges across regions are likely to wield disproportionate influence. Modi’s five-nation tour seeks to position India within that emerging possibility.