The Next Great Partnership: Jaishankar’s Mongolia Visit Signals India’s Strategic Push into Inner Asia

If history connected India and Mongolia through faith, the future may connect them through fuel, technology and critical minerals. The evolution is not a departure from the past. Instead, it represents an effort to translate historical goodwill into practical cooperation capable of delivering long-term strategic value.

A monastery explains why India and Mongolia became friends, but a refinery may eventually be the reason why they remain partners in the decades ahead.

That contrast captures the deeper significance of External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar's recent visit to Mongolia. While the optics of the trip were rooted in familiar themes of Buddhist heritage and civilizational affinity, the substance pointed toward a wider Asian geopolitical equation.

India searches for reliable partners beyond its immediate neighbourhood, and Mongolia seeks greater strategic space amid powerful neighbours. The interests of both countries are converging in ways that would have seemed unlikely even a decade ago.

A Friendship Forged Beyond Geography

Few international relationships defy geography as convincingly as the one between India and Mongolia. Separated by thousands of kilometres and sharing neither a border nor a common regional framework, the two countries have nevertheless cultivated a remarkably enduring bond. India became the first nation outside the Soviet bloc to establish diplomatic relations with Mongolia in 1955, a decision that reflected New Delhi's early recognition of Mongolia's distinct identity and strategic significance at a time when Cold War divisions shaped much of global diplomacy.

The deeper connection lies in a shared civilizational memory rooted in Buddhism. Around 53 per cent of Mongolia's population follows Buddhism, and for generations the faith has served as a cultural bridge linking the Mongolian steppes with the land where the Buddha lived and taught.

The emotional depth of that connection became evident in 2022 when India sent sacred relics of the Buddha to Mongolia for a major public exposition. Tens of thousands of Mongolians visited the exhibition, transforming what could have been a routine cultural event into a powerful expression of collective reverence.

This is one of the reasons why Mongolia officially refers to India as its "Spiritual Neighbour," a designation that remains unique in international diplomacy. The phrase is not merely ceremonial as it reflects a relationship that possesses an emotional foundation rarely available to modern states navigating a rather transactional world.

When Sentiment Made Room for Strategy

While history and culture laid the groundwork, the relationship acquired a new strategic dimension in 2015 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historic visit to Mongolia, the first-ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the country.

During the visit, India elevated ties to a Strategic Partnership and announced a USD 1 billion Line of Credit, signalling a willingness to invest political and economic capital in a relationship that had long been rich in symbolism but relatively modest in strategic content. That decision altered the trajectory of bilateral engagement.

Over the following decade, cooperation expanded into areas that would once have appeared peripheral to India-Mongolia relations. Defence exchanges deepened, development projects multiplied, educational cooperation widened, and discussions mostly focused on infrastructure, technology, connectivity and economic resilience. The relationship gradually evolved from one sustained primarily by historical goodwill into one supported by tangible strategic interests.

The recent visit by Dr Jaishankar, therefore, can be understood within this larger context. Coming shortly after the celebration of the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the tenth anniversary of the Strategic Partnership, the visit was as much about reviewing a decade of progress as it was about identifying the priorities that will shape the next phase of engagement.

A Billion Dollar Refinery in the Gobi

Nothing illustrates this transformation more vividly than the Mongol Oil Refinery Project, which is rising from the vast and unforgiving landscape of Mongolia's Gobi region. Constructed with Indian assistance through a Line of Credit worth approximately USD 1.7 billion, the refinery has become the flagship symbol of contemporary India-Mongolia cooperation. It is also one of India's most ambitious overseas development initiatives, reflecting a foreign policy approach that seeks to create long-term strategic assets rather than merely provide developmental assistance.

The project's progress is particularly noteworthy given the conditions under which it is being built. Extreme temperatures, difficult terrain and significant logistical challenges have complicated construction efforts, yet the project has continued to move forward steadily. During his visit, Dr Jaishankar personally reviewed progress at the site, underscoring the importance New Delhi attaches to its successful completion.

For Mongolia, the refinery promises a substantial reduction in dependence on imported petroleum products and greater energy security at a time when supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions have become recurring features of the global economy. For India, the project demonstrates credibility as a development partner capable of delivering large-scale infrastructure initiatives in challenging environments.

The refinery rising in Mongolia's Gobi landscape represents India's strategic footprint in Inner Asia and embodies a broader understanding that influence in the twenty-first century is built through infrastructure, connectivity and economic partnerships that create long-term interdependence and mutual benefit.

Many believe that the refinery symbolises the evolution of India's foreign policy. Development assistance is no longer viewed merely as goodwill. It is becoming an instrument through which strategic relationships are deepened and regional influence is sustained.

The Resource Race Reshaping Asia

The global transition toward clean energy and advanced manufacturing has triggered an intense competition for resources that are essential to modern industry. Rare earth elements, copper, uranium and coking coal have acquired strategic importance because they underpin everything from electric vehicles and renewable energy systems to defence technologies and high-end manufacturing. Mongolia finds itself unusually well-positioned in this emerging landscape.

More than 8,000 mineral deposits and occurrences have been identified across the country, many of which remain underexplored. Its reserves of rare earth elements, copper, uranium and other strategic resources have consistently attracted the attention of major powers seeking to secure reliable supply chains in an uncertain geopolitical environment.

As New Delhi accelerates its ambitions in renewable energy, electric mobility, semiconductor manufacturing and advanced industrial production, access to critical minerals is becoming a strategic necessity. Dependence on concentrated supply chains creates vulnerabilities that governments across the world are now attempting to reduce, and Mongolia offers an opportunity to diversify sources of supply while strengthening a trusted bilateral partnership.

It is therefore unsurprising that discussions during Dr Jaishankar's visit extended well beyond traditional diplomatic themes and included conversations on mining cooperation, critical minerals and supply-chain resilience. These discussions suggest that both countries recognise the economic and strategic potential of closer resource partnerships.

Mongolia's Balancing Act

Located between Russia and China, Mongolia occupies one of the most strategically sensitive spaces in Asia. Geography has always shaped its foreign policy choices, compelling successive governments to pursue a careful balancing strategy designed to preserve national autonomy while maintaining productive relations with powerful neighbours.

This approach eventually evolved into Mongolia's well-known "Third Neighbour Policy," through which the country seeks deeper engagement with nations beyond its immediate geographical surroundings. The objective is not confrontation with its neighbours but the creation of diplomatic flexibility and strategic diversification. India has emerged as one of the most important partners within this framework.

While New Delhi cannot alter Mongolia's geographic realities, it can contribute to the country's economic development, institutional capacity-building, technological advancement and educational progress. These forms of engagement provide Mongolia with additional strategic options while allowing India to strengthen its presence in a region that remains fairly important to the future balance of power in Asia.

For New Delhi, engagement with Mongolia fits naturally into a broader vision of a multipolar continent where countries possess greater agency and are not forced into exclusive spheres of influence. Supporting Mongolia's strategic autonomy, therefore, aligns with India's larger objective of encouraging a more balanced and diversified Asian order.

Spirituality and Strategy

During his visit, Dr Jaishankar paid respects at the Gandantegchinlen Monastery in Ulaanbaatar, one of Mongolia's most significant Buddhist institutions. India is currently supporting the digitisation of one million Buddhist manuscripts housed there, a project that ranks among the largest heritage preservation initiatives in the region and reflects a commitment to safeguarding a shared civilizational legacy.

Such initiatives may appear cultural in nature, but their diplomatic value is substantial. They nurture goodwill, deepen people-to-people connections and strengthen the emotional foundations upon which broader strategic cooperation can flourish.

President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh and Dr S Jaishankar

President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh's observation that "the greatest friendship is spiritual friendship" resonates precisely because it captures a truth that conventional geopolitical analysis often overlooks. Strategic partnerships endure most effectively when they are supported not only by calculations of interest but also by a sense of mutual respect and shared purpose.

A Partnership for a Changing Asia

For much of the post-Cold War era, Mongolia occupied a relatively modest place in India's foreign policy priorities. Today, however, it sits at the intersection of several strategic imperatives, including energy security, critical mineral access, technological cooperation, developmental diplomacy and the search for reliable partners across continental Asia.

The challenge now lies in translating ambition into outcomes. The successful completion of the Mongol Oil Refinery, deeper collaboration in mining and critical minerals, expanded technology partnerships and stronger educational exchanges will determine whether the relationship reaches its full potential.

If history connected India and Mongolia through faith, the future may connect them through fuel, technology and critical minerals. The evolution is not a departure from the past. Instead, it represents an effort to translate historical goodwill into practical cooperation capable of delivering long-term strategic value.

The monastery and the refinery stand as two enduring symbols of a partnership that is steadily maturing. One speaks of centuries-old bonds forged through faith and culture. The other reflects the hard realities of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where energy, resources, technology and strategic resilience shape national choices.

Somewhere between the prayer halls of Ulaanbaatar and the windswept construction sites of the Gobi Desert, India and Mongolia are subtly crafting a relationship that extends far beyond bilateral diplomacy. They are building a partnership designed for a changing Asia, drawing strength from history while preparing for a future where strategic relevance will matter just as much as spiritual affinity.