10th Indian Ocean Dialogue: How the Next Great Power Contest Is Unfolding at Sea

The Indian Ocean today stands at the intersection of geopolitical rivalry and cooperative possibility and contains both the risks of fragmentation and the promise of shared regionalism. Whether that promise can be realised depends on political trust, sustained dialogue and collective responsibility. The 10th Indian Ocean Dialogue showed that countries comprehend this reality.

The Indian Ocean has transformed from being a mere transit corridor into the grand arena where the future of Asia, and even the world, will be negotiated. For centuries, the winds that carried traders, travellers and civilisations across these waters, today, they carry the ambitions and anxieties of a rapidly changing world.

The 10th Indian Ocean Dialogue, held in New Delhi on May 7 and 8, 2026, might look like another usual diplomatic conference, but it reflects something far more consequential. The Indian Ocean has become the strategic hinge of the 21st century, where trade, technology, energy, climate security and military competition increasingly intersect.

Organised by India’s Ministry of External Affairs along with the Indian Council of World Affairs and the Secretariat of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, the Dialogue unfolded under the theme “Indian Ocean Region in a Transforming World.” Ministers, diplomats, naval experts, scholars and strategic thinkers from across the region gathered to discuss how nations can cooperate in an ocean that has become both an economic lifeline and a geopolitical fault line.

Every smartphone notification, oil shipment and online transaction is invisibly connected to the stability of the Indian Ocean. According to strategic estimates, more than 90 per cent of global internet traffic travels through undersea fibre-optic cables, many of which pass beneath the Indian Ocean seabed. Any disruption here quickly becomes a global disruption.

What Happened at the 10th Indian Ocean Dialogue

The inaugural session of IOD-10 featured addresses by Union Minister for Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal, Mauritius Minister of Regional Integration and International Trade Dhananjay Ramful and Yemen Minister of State Waleed Mohammed Al Qadimi.

The discussions repeatedly returned to shared vulnerabilities as participants highlighted concerns surrounding maritime insecurity, climate risks, economic disruptions and disaster preparedness. India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that the deliberations were guided by India’s Chairship theme of “Innovation, Openness, Resilience and Adaptability in the Indian Ocean Region.”

Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed Addressing the IOD

The conference explored issues ranging from Blue Economy cooperation and digital connectivity to trade, maritime governance and humanitarian assistance. Delegates also stressed the importance of strengthening information-sharing systems and institutional coordination. The valedictory session featured former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed, while Secretary (East) P. Kumaran outlined India’s priorities as IORA Chair.

One theme surfaced repeatedly throughout the Dialogue that maritime challenges no longer remain confined within national borders. Piracy in one region affects shipping globally. Climate disasters in island nations trigger economic shocks elsewhere. Disruptions in maritime trade corridors immediately influence supply chains worldwide. It is safe to say that the Indian Ocean has effectively become the bloodstream of globalisation.

The Ocean That Connects Billions

The Indian Ocean covers nearly one-fifth of the world’s oceanic area and connects Asia, Africa and Australia. Few maritime spaces carry such extraordinary strategic weight. The region is home to nearly 2.7 billion people, almost one-third of humanity, making it one of the most densely interconnected geopolitical theatres in the world.

Around 80 percent of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Indian Ocean’s major chokepoints, especially the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Strait of Malacca. These narrow sea lanes now influence inflation, food prices, manufacturing chains and energy security across continents.

The events of 2024 demonstrated this vulnerability when attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen-based Houthi militants disrupted major shipping routes connected to the Indian Ocean. Several cargo vessels were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and sharply increasing freight costs. A crisis in one maritime corridor destabilised the entire supply landscape.

Hence, policymakers around the globe realise that the Indian Ocean can no longer be viewed merely through the lens of naval power. The ocean connects not just economies, but the everyday aspirations of billions across three continents. Stability here directly shapes livelihoods far beyond the coastline.

From Kochi Consensus to a Strategic Forum

Secretary (East) P Kumaran at the IOD

The Indian Ocean Dialogue itself reflects the changing character of regional diplomacy. The initiative emerged after the 13th Council of Ministers Meeting of the Indian Ocean Rim Association in Perth in 2013. It was conceived as a “Track 1.5 diplomacy” platform that blends official diplomacy with academic, strategic and policy conversations.

The first edition took place in Kochi, Kerala, in 2014. Hosted by India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the Observer Research Foundation, the inaugural conference produced the “Kochi Consensus.” It emphasised maritime cooperation, disaster management, regional connectivity and information sharing as pillars of long-term stability.

Over the past decade, the Dialogue has steadily evolved into IORA’s premier strategic platform. The Indian Ocean Rim Association itself now comprises 23 Member States and 12 Dialogue Partners, making it one of the most geographically diverse regional organisations in the world.

Unlike conventional military alliances, the Dialogue allows countries with vastly different political systems and strategic alignments to exchange views openly. That flexibility has become one of its greatest strengths at a time when global diplomacy increasingly struggles under polarisation and bloc politics.

India’s Expanding Maritime Vision

India entered the 10th Dialogue with growing strategic confidence. New Delhi currently holds the Chairship of IORA for the 2025-27 period, giving additional diplomatic weight to the event. India used the platform to project itself as a stabilising maritime power committed to inclusive regional cooperation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s SAGAR doctrine, meaning “Security and Growth for All in the Region,” had already laid the foundation for India’s maritime outreach over the past decade. The doctrine encouraged cooperative security, stronger regional partnerships and maritime connectivity.

At the Dialogue, India expanded this framework further through MAHASAGAR, or “Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions.” The idea seeks to broaden maritime governance beyond military concerns alone. It places equal emphasis on climate resilience, economic security, digital cooperation, humanitarian assistance and sustainable development.

India’s own geography strengthens this maritime outlook, given its coastline stretching over 7,500 kilometres, including island territories. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands give India a strategic vantage point near the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints. Yet India’s maritime approach has also been shaped by lived experience rather than strategy papers alone.

During the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, India launched one of its largest humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. Indian forces rapidly delivered aid not only to affected domestic regions but also to Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia. The operation reshaped India’s maritime outlook and strengthened its image as a “first responder” in the Indian Ocean Region.

That memory still influences India’s maritime diplomacy today. Security cooperation in the Indian Ocean increasingly includes disaster relief, medical assistance and humanitarian coordination alongside traditional naval operations.

The Return of Geopolitics at Sea

The Indian Ocean has entered an era of intensified strategic competition. China’s growing naval presence and expanding infrastructure investments across littoral states have altered regional calculations. Ports and other maritime infrastructure projects now carry strategic implications alongside commercial value.

At the same time, non-traditional threats continue to multiply. Issues like piracy, trafficking networks, illegal fishing and maritime terrorism remain persistent challenges across several zones of the Indian Ocean.

When piracy surged near the Horn of Africa during the late 2000s, the Indian Navy began sustained anti-piracy deployments in the Gulf of Aden. Over the years, Indian naval missions rescued numerous foreign ships and crews, highlighting how maritime security has become fundamentally international in character. No nation can secure the Indian Ocean alone.

Climate change has further complicated this landscape as small island nations and vulnerable coastal states face rising sea levels, extreme weather events and ecological degradation. For many of these countries, the real dilemma lies in deciding which threat feels more immediate, climate insecurity or military insecurity.

The Indian Ocean also contains vast untapped reserves of hydrocarbons, rare earth minerals and polymetallic nodules. As countries race to secure critical minerals for advanced technologies and clean energy transitions, competition beneath the seabed may become as consequential as rivalry on the surface waters.

Beyond Diplomacy, Towards Maritime Cooperation

The significance of the Indian Ocean Dialogue lies in its necessity. Unlike Europe or Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean lacks a cohesive security architecture comparable to NATO or ASEAN. That institutional gap makes consultative platforms like the Dialogue especially important.

The forum creates political space for cooperation without forcing countries into rigid alliance structures. That matters deeply in a region where major powers, middle powers and smaller island nations often possess competing interests yet share the same maritime vulnerabilities.

India’s approach also carries broader geopolitical significance as New Delhi continues to emphasise connectivity, sustainable growth and collective prosperity rather than framing the Indian Ocean purely through military balancing. This enables India to expand its regional influence while avoiding the image of an overbearing maritime power.

The future of global order depends on maritime governance. Energy flows, digital infrastructure, trade routes, climate resilience and economic stability are now inseparable from the security of the oceans.

The Indian Ocean today stands at the intersection of geopolitical rivalry and cooperative possibility and contains both the risks of fragmentation and the promise of shared regionalism. Whether that promise can be realised depends on political trust, sustained dialogue and collective responsibility. The 10th Indian Ocean Dialogue showed that countries comprehend this reality.